How much do we know at any time? Much more, or so I believe, than we know we know!- Agatha Christie
The easiest person to deceive is one's self
- Robert Bulwer-Lytton
There are two ways to live - one is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle – Albert Einstein
What proportion of your future will be determined by your calculated and knowledge-based decisions? What proportion will be determined by your intuitive feel for what you need to do and which direction you should follow? What proportion will be determined by luck or coincidence? What proportion, if not everything, is determined from eternity in a detailed divine plan? What proportion will be determined by in the moment divine intervention? If it is more than one of the above, what are the different proportions supposed to be? If you have the formula, please let us know!
Perhaps we could have saved ourselves a lot of trouble and perhaps we could have experienced much more happiness and enjoyment if we based our behaviours and personal strategies a lot more on known facts and the results of scientific research. We could have been cleverer and learned more about the cause and effect laws of life. On the other hand, things could have been a lot better for us if we followed our intuition a lot more than what we did. Perhaps we should have accepted that the way things unfold in life is not really determined by our own actions an plans; that everything is determined and written in a divine plan. It could have saved us a lot of worries and headaches. Perhaps we need to be looking a lot more for immediate divine intervention in our daily lives.
When we say that there are three groups of people, those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who say, ‘what happened?’, we insinuate that people should take responsibility and control and make things happen. Those who don’t are parasites. We admire people who make things happen. But how many of those actions are based on wrong perceptions and assumptions and are we then really better off? In the situation where, with the economic turbulence that we are experiencing, you or others need to cut costs on the one hand and recognise and take new opportunities on the other, how do you decide what to do? When interviewing an applicant for a position, what in the final analysis determine your decision? How do you make up your mind about a relationship – whether you should commit and invest more of yourself or whether it is better to let go of it?
As with so many things in life, we are confronted with paradox when we try to find the best answers or solutions. On the one hand, as we get older, we can become more and more confident in our own ability to know what is right. We are convinced that we know more than we know we know – our intuition is a source of wisdom. On the other hand experience has taught us that more often than not we should reserve judgment about people, predictions and things that are stated as truths. Other people clearly deceive themselves many times and to be honest, we have to admit that it is easy to deceive oneself.
Consider the following examples of typical self deception from David Myers’ very informative book, Intuition - its powers and perils.
· A group of students were shown a video of a young girl taking an oral achievement test in which she got some questions right and some wrong. Half the students previously were shown video material with the girl in a depressed urban setting. The other half were shown video material with the girl in an affluent suburban setting. The first half unconsciously inferred low ability and recalled her as missing half the questions. The other half inferred higher ability and recalled her as getting most questions right. In observing others, we can't resist making judgments. We speedily, spontaneously, and unintentionally infer others' traits. And often we are wrong.
· Depending on our assumptions we construe reality differently. A group of people were shown different pictures of an expressionless man. In one of them there was a bowl of soup in front of him. The viewers intuition told them he was pensive. In another a dead woman was in front of him. The perceived him as sorrowful. And in another there was a happy girl and the viewers thought he seemed happy.
· Mispredicting own behaviour. A group of people were give an example of a sexist remark. They were asked how they would respond in a real situation where someone would make such a statement. Would they say nothing or comment on its inappropriateness? 95% said they will respond in some way or another, 48% said they will comment on inappropriateness. When the behaviour later was tested in a real situation 55% said nothing, only 16% criticised the person who made a sexist remark.
· Hindsight bias. We tell ourselves we knew certain things all along when in reality it is only with hindsight that we can feel so self assured. Sometimes we will look at a couple and say ‘it’s obvious, opposites attract’. In a different situation we will say ‘it’s obvious, birds of a feather flock together’. Sometimes we conclude with certainty, ‘absence makes the heart grow fonder’, other times we conclude ‘out of sight is out of mind’. Sometimes it’s clear that ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ but in a different situation we feel that ‘two heads are better than one’. The point is that our confidence about our ability to judge correctly is with hindsight.
· Self serving bias. How often will one hear someone saying ‘that's not fair! You're paying me too much.’ Or ‘what have I done to deserve this?’ If we follow our intuition about our own contributions we tend to over estimate them. If you ask a wife and husband to estimate what percentage of the time they each do the dishes, walk the dog, turn out the lights, or shop, their estimates will usually sum to more than 100 percent. Our intuitions do not insult us. Nine in ten managers rate themselves as superior to their average peer.
· Over confidence. Testing people’s confidence about their knowledge researchers found that on average people will feel 75 percent sure of their answers when they are only 60 percent correct.
· Belief perseverance. Once a belief forms, we filter information in ways that sustain it. When shown the findings of two research studies, one confirming and the other disconfirming their preexisting beliefs about capital punishment's supposed deterrent effect. Both groups readily accepted the evidence that confirmed their view but sharply criticized the evidence that challenged it. The result: showing the two sides an identical body of mixed evidence increased their disagreement.
· Lastly, the human understanding supposes a greater degree of order in things than it really finds. Consider a random coin flip: If someone flipped a coin six times, which of the following sequences of heads (H) and tails (T) would seem most likely: HHHTTT or HTTHTH or HHHHHH? Most people believe HTTHTH would be the most likely random sequence. Actually, all are equally likely (or, you might say, equally unlikely).
Didn’t you also feel that there is something almost sinister about Ricky Ponting’s streak of, I think 6 in a row, wins of the toss against Graeme Smith?
There are many more examples of how deceptive our perceptions can be, but I guess the above are sufficient to caution us against over-confidently following our intuition. In other words, we run the risk of making far reaching errors if we stubbornly tell ourselves that we don’t need others to help us in our assessment of situations, risks, opportunities or people. Furthermore, science offers us responsible guidance when we try to make sense and sound decisions in an increasingly complex world. But then there is still a third and even more fundamental dimension of knowing after our intuition and after science. Science can’t answer the ultimate questions: Why should I live? Why should I do anything? Is there in life any purpose that will not be destroyed by the inevitable death? Science does not pretend to answer such questions. When the early scientists such as Pascal, Bacon, Newton, and Galileo dedicated themselves to experiments, analysis and knowledge, they didn’t do so in rebellion against God but with a view of serving God as they explored the creation. They were wary of intuition and skeptic of human authority, but they humbly acknowledged God as Creator of everything and the Giver of purpose to life. And Einstein with his superior analytical and scrutinising mind still believed that the universe, and therefore life, is a miracle.
When we consider how we make decisions and what will determine our future this and the other side of the grave, there is a place for our intuition, a place for science but no doubt also a place for our spiritual beliefs. Spiritual intelligence nowadays is acknowledged as fundamental also to how we function at work. Psychologist Robert Emmons identified the following components of spiritual intelligence:
· The capacity for transcendence
· The ability to sanctify everyday experience
· The ability to experience heightened states of consciousness
· The ability to utilize spiritual resources to solve problems
· The capacity to engage in virtuous behaviour
Clearly, it is not the area of a perfect science. But it is the area that provides deeper meaning, morality, compassion and hope in a world that is imperfect, unsafe and stained by human suffering, cruelty and despair.
We're all surely wrong to some extent. We glimpse ultimate reality only dimly and we always remain vulnerable and mortal. In finding our way forward we might want to pray a different version of Reinhold Niebuhr’s Serenity Prayer:
God, give us grace to accept the things that are true,
courage to challenge the things which are untrue,
and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other.
Best wishes
Gerhard
I repeat my offer of inspirational talks on the following topics:
· Inspire yourself, inspire others
· Resilience and tenacity
· Accountability and responsibility
· The illusion of security
· The power of character
· Excellence and success
· Busyness and prioritising
· Mental and spiritual fitness